College Football, Week 9: Oregon on upset Alert?

As we start to near the end of the college football season, the race is on to find out which teams (if any) will end the season 12-0 (or 13-0, if that team plays in a conference championship.) First and foremost this week is Oregon, who hosts their biggest game of the week when they face UCLA.

The Ducks feature one of the fastest scoring offenses in the nation, led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Marcus Mariota, who many consider to be the top prospect at the position in next year's NFL draft. And let's not forget the returning DeAnthony Thomas, aka DAT, whose 7 yard per carry is just outrageous, even for someone in the amateur ranks.

Then there's UCLA, whose hopes for a national title and PAC-12 North crown took a huge blow last weekend when they lost to Stanford. The Bruins, led by QB Brett Hundley, will look to avenge their first loss of 2013 with a stellar performance in Eugene.

Conventional wisdom says the Bruins don't stand a chance, with the Ducks averaging a whopping 57.6 points per game. And normally I would look to say that Oregon will continue on its hot streak as of late. But today I am throwing conventional wisdom out the books, and going with UCLA to hand Oregon its first lost in a shootout, 44-40.

In other top 25 action

Wake Forest at 7 Miami: I'm not so sure about the sanctions the NCAA handed down to the 'Canes in response to their most recent scandal. I'm also not sure that the 'U' finishes the season undefeated, either. What I am sure of, however, is that this isn't the first week where they lose. Miami, 49-7.

19 Oklahoma State at Iowa State: Last week I had the misfortune of thinking the Mountaineers could upset the Cowboys, only to see the visitors win 37-27. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...there is no fooling me twice. Oklahoma State, 65-3

Connecticut at 23 UCF: The Huskies looked good a few weeks ago when they almost upset Michigan. This week I'm picking them as my upset special. Connecticut, 24-16

24 Nebraska at Minnesota: A game I almost predicted the exact score last season, I have a good feeling about this game again...for the Huskers that is. Taylor Martinez throws for 400 yards and 4 TDs. Nebraska, 45-14

20 Louisville at South Florida: Can 'Touchdown' Teddy Bridgewater and company bounce back against a better-than-their-record-shows USF squad? I think so. Louisville, 35-17

Vanderbilt at 16 Texas A &M: Johnny Football's hopes of repeating as Heisman winner may have taken a blow last week against Auburn. That still doesn't mean the Commodores have any shot of beating the Aggies. Texas A &M, 48-21

Tennessee at 1 Alabama: Less than 50,000 fans who don't 'work' according to Nick Saban even stay until halftime for this one. Like it matters anyway.  Alabama, 49-7

North Carolina State at 2Florida State: 'Famous' Jameis Winston takes another step toward becoming only the second freshman ever to win the Heisman Memorial Trophy. FSU, 28-10

9 Clemson at Maryland: What is Tajh Boyd's status for today's game? Unfortunately for the Terps, it doesn't really matter. Clemson, 27-17.

10 Texas Tech at 15 Oklahoma: At first I was going to pick the Sooners, but then I remembered their debacle earlier this year in the Red River Shootout. On the other hand, Red Raiders are due...
Oklahoma, 17-14

Duke at 14 Virginia Tech: I'd like to take this opportunity to once again wish my sister-in-law Kristen, a proud VT alum, a happy birthday. We'll just call the game against the Crimson Tide earlier in the year an aberration. Logan Thomas and company in a rout. Virginia Tech, 36-21

Eastern Michigan at 18 Northern Illinois: Huskies by a comfortable margin.

21 South Carolina at 5 Missouri: Before the season, I had the Gamecocks pegged as one team to contend for the SEC East title. Now I'm not so sure. But my gut tells me this is another upset.  South Carolina 24-21

 Penn State at 4 Ohio State: Buckeyes have yet to get their act together on defense. Urban is getting anxious, however. Look for a big change to bolster the Silver Bullets D. Ohio State, 35-14

Bonus Pick: Pittsburgh at Navy: Midshipmen lost a heartbreaker against the Rockets last week in double OT. Look for the Middies to bounce back this week at home against the Panthers. Navy, 28-24.
 That's all folks, until next time
 

 

College Football, Week 8: FSU Rules the ACC

I'm baaaaaackkkk!!! Just in time for the meat of the college football season.

And while it appears Alabama is primed to make a run at its third consecutive national title, another freshman quarterback looks to win the Heisman Trophy.

That's right folks, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston looks to punch his ticket to New York this weekend with a impressive performance against Clemson. You know, the kind of performance that Johnny Manziel had in 2012 against Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

In fact, some might say that Winston is performing better as a freshman this season than 'Johnny Football' had at this point in 2012. And while many pundits would argue that Marcus Mariota should be the frontrunner for college football's most prestigious award, I believe that it is Winston's trophy to lose.

But I digress. I'm back to predict this week's top 25 action, and this time there is a little twist. Unlike last year, I won't be providing outcomes. Instead, I am going to go head to head with the most current Las Vegas odds. It should be noted that last season I was 15-7 in predicting winners, nearly predicting the exact score on a few occasions.

On to tomorrow's predictions(note: all lines are from pinnaclesports.com, last updated at 10/18/2013, teams that I predict to cover are in bold)

5 Florida State (-3) at 3 Clemson: This game has been and will continue (until game time) to be billed as the duel between quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Tajh Boyd. Yet the Seminoles would be unwise to count out the presence of wideout Sammy Watkins, who has been absolutely on fire in 2013, catching 36 passes for at total of 582 yards.

The X-factor in this game has to be the play of the Florida State defense. Among the leaders in scoring defense( allowing only 12.0 ppg), the Seminoles have also allowed opponents to convert only 29.41% of their third down conversions. Add to that FSU is +4 in turnover margin, and I believe the visitors will cover the small spread.

11 South Carolina (-7.5) at Tennessee: The Volunteers are still foaming at the mouth over their overtime loss at Neyland Stadium two weeks ago against Georgia. They believe they're better than their 3-3 record would suggest, and feel a win over the Gamecocks would go a long way to proving that.

Unfortunately for UT, SC's defense is a bit better than the Bulldogs. That and a healthy Connor Shaw means the favorites cover once again.

15 Georgia at Vanderbilt (+7): Bulldogs are pissed they let Mizzou walk into Athens and come away with a victory. With or without star running back Todd Gurley, look for UGA to roll.

16 Texas Tech(-5) at West Virginia : My upset special of the week as quarterback Clint Trickett has another big game. Mountaineers cover this one.

TCU (+7.5) at 21 Oklahoma State: Two weeks ago Cowboys were stunned by a game West Virginia squad. Could it happen again? No. Home team by at least 10.

22 Florida at 14 Missouri (+3): Tigers have been this year's Cinderella story. Unfortunately for them, without the services of QB James Franklin, the glass slipper no longer fits.

23 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan(+15): The Chippewas are terrible. Just terrible.

24 Auburn at 7 Texas A&M (-13.5): Johnny Manziel and company continue to play lights out, at least until they face LSU.

9 UCLA (+4.5) at 13 Stanford: Although Brett Hundley and the Bruins are on a roll, Stanford is at home and coming off a heartbreaking loss. Even so, I like the underdog to cover in a losing effort.

18 Oklahoma at Kansas (+22): Even Bill Self couldn't help the Jayhawks cover this line.

In other games:

20 Washington (+3.5) over Arizona State

Illinois (+14) covers at home versus 25 Wisconsin

1 Alabama covers versus Arkansas (do you really need the line for this one? Shaking my head)

6 LSU (-9.5) over Ole Miss

And

2 Oregon covers against whomever they're playing (I think it's Washington State, but again does it matter?)

College Football Week 12 Preview: Is Oregon No. 1?

So it looks like I bombed last week with my prediction that Alabama would remain undefeated. And now it appears that rather than the SEC winning another mythical national championship, a more likely scenario has them winning another heisman trophy.

Texas A and M's Johnny Manziel is no Johnny come lately to the college football world, even though he is only a freshman quarterback for the Aggies. Prior to last Saturday's victory over the Crimson Tide, Manziel had passed for more than 2500 yards and run for over 900 yards for the Aggies, who, at 8-2, have surprised almost everyone in the first year in the SEC. It is probably not out of the question that Texas A and M head coach Kevin Sumlin might also be the frontrunner for coach of the year.

But enough about last week, on to week number 12. This week's biggest game features the Oregon Ducks, and their video game-like offense, versus Pac-12 rival Stanford, who is also fighting for a berth in this year's Pac-12 championship. The key to this game, of course, won't be whether the Cardinal can stop Chip Kelly's high powered offense; but it will come down to the play of Stanford's offense, led by senior tailback Stepfan Taylor. If the Cardinal can establish the run early, and keep Oregon's offense off the field, they have a chance.

So, will Saturday mark the second straight week that a top three team falls from the ranks of the unbeaten? As much as I'd like to see it, I just don't think it is going to happen. Chip Kelly runs one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, and quarterback Marcus Mariota might be one of the more underrated players in the game. Not that people in Pac-12 country think that, but you would be hard pressed to find anyone on the East Coast who is mentioning his name for Heisman.

Mariota has quitely passed for 2164 yards and 28 TDs, while only throwing 5 interceptions at the same time. He has also added another 516 yards and 3 TDs on the ground for the Ducks, who should remain undefeated, dispatching of the Cardinal 38-20.

In other top 25 action:

10 Florida State at Maryland: EJ Manuel and company inch one step closer to the ACC Atlantic Divison crown, rolling over the Terps, 54-3.

Iowa at 21 Michigan: Will the real Michigan please stand up? Please stand up? Please stand up? Wolverines let the Hawkeyes stay in this one until the end, winning 27-24.

22 Rutgers at Cincinnati: Butch Jones has once again resurrected a program that Brian Kelly left. Impressive indeed. But can I really root for a team whose starting quarterback is named Munchie? Of course I will. Bearcats, 24-21.

Western Carolina at 4 Alabama: Crimson Tide, still mad their undefeated season is lost, go easy on the Catamounts. If you consider 40-10 going easy on someone. Eddie Lacy runs for almost 250 in the win.

Jacksonville State at  6 Florida: After last week's near embarrassment, Will Muschamp's Gators let Jax State hang around too before pulling away 28-14.

Wofford at 9 South Carolina: Jedevon Clowney 14, Wofford 3. Yeah, I think that's all that needs to be said 'bout this one. Gamecocks roll. Oh, wait, that's the Crimson Tide line. Gamecocks still win big, though.

Georgia Southern at 5 Georgia: Cause I'm already over the powder puff teams the SEC plays this week, Bulldogs win.

25 Washington at Colorado:Do I even need to say it?

18 USC at 17 UCLA: In what could probably turn out to be an even more hotly contested game than Oregon-Stanford, Matt Barkley and the Trojans get the inside track to the Pac-12 South title, 24-17.

Wake Forest at 3 Notre Dame: If only the Irish could mount some offense, they might be dangerous. Notre Dame, 28-10.

Ole Miss at 7 LSU: Tigers win big.

Sam Houston State at 8 Texas A and M: Aggies need another big game from Johnny Football to pull this one out, 42-28.

North Carolina State at 11 Clemson: Tahj Boyd, Sammy Watkins and company come up big against the Wolfpack, but it is not enough to wrest first place in the Atlantic from FSU. Clemson 45-17.

Minnesota at 14 Nebraska: Cornhuskers are going to Rose Bowl. You heard it here first. Nebraska 38-17,

23 Texas Tech at 24 Oklahoma State: Red Raiders win one for Leach. What? He doesn't coach there anymore? Well Red Raiders just win. Texas Tech 35-31.

Ohio State (unranked in BCS, 10 in J-Rod Sportszone's top 10 to be revealed later in this column) at Wisconsin: Buckeyes don't need Miller to Smith heroics this time around, winning 27-17.


Upset special of the week West Virginia (home) over No. 12 Oklahoma: Geno Smith, once frontrunner for the Heisman, puts on one of his better perfomances for the Mountaineer fan base, as Sooners are beat 35-28.


J-Rod's Sportszone's Top 10:

1. Oregon

2. Kansas State

3. Alabama

4.  Georgia

5.  LSU

6. Notre Dame

7. Texas A and M

8.  Clemson

9. South Carolina

10. Ohio State